Monday, March 22, 2004

Preguntas sin respuestas

There are many questions that need to be answered before we can fully understand these elections. Likewise, there are many questions about the future, about which we can only speculate at the moment. Here's a list of a few of them.

About the current election:
* Who were the new voters? Were they young people, who picked up their DUI because they needed it for other things, and then decided to vote?
* What happened to the votes from the center coalition--did they migrate left or right, or both?
* What were the most important factors that motivated all the new voters for ARENA? Fear of communism (and accompanying rumors)? Fear of remittances ending/fear of ending temporary residential status of Salvadorans in the US?
* How did the statements by various U.S. officials (State Dept. and congressmen) play out in the minds of voters?

About the future:
* What role will the past and the war play in future campaigns?
* Will Tony Saca prove to be as open to discussion and concertación (consensus-building) as he currently proclaims?
* How will the FMLN react to this loss? Will it reform its leadership, or will Handal hold on to power?
* What's the future of the center parties (PDC and CDU)?
* Under what circumstances would the wealthy elites in El Salvador accept a win by a "left" alternative? If a moderate left force runs in 2009, would that be enough, or would they be villified as well?

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