Below is a meta-analysis directed at the question of who will win the Electoral College. Meta-analysis provides more objectivity and precision than looking at one or a few polls, and in the case of election prediction gives a more accurate current snapshot. The calculations are based on all available recent state polls, which are used to estimate the probability of a Bush/Kerry win, state by state. These are then used to go through all possible combinations of battleground state results. The effects of undecided voters, turnout, and polling bias are calculated using the bias analysis. Here are the full methods.As you can see, he comes up with virtually the same map as the most optimistic scenario I mentioned yesterday, with two exceptions: he includes Nevada in the Kerry camp, and he gets the colors right! (duh)
His final numbers: Kerry 316, Bush 222.
Oh, and the map is weighted (expanded?) to represent the actual number of electoral college votes.
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